The recent article in The New York Times about the month-long denial-of-service attack against Estonian institutions is a prediction of the future. To summarize, in April, Estonian authorities moved a bronze statue of a World War II soldier from a park in Tallinn, Estonia to a military graveyard. The Russian-speaking minority in Estonia protested, via riots and online denial-of-service attacks. The electronic attackers first overwhelmed the Parliament's e-mail server; they then went for other government agencies, banks, and newspapers. This was highly organized: "The 10 largest assaults blasted streams of 90 megabits of data a second at Estonia’s networks, lasting up to 10 hours each." Estonia's largest bank, Hansabank, continues to suffer assaults and so far has losses due to these denial-of-service attacks of at least $1 million.
This story becomes relevant to the content management world due to the arrival of SaaS-based collaboration and content services. In February, Google announced Google Apps, Premier Edition (GAPE); a while later, Salesforce.com said it was going to field an offering; meanwhile, Microsoft continues to move ahead with its Office Live service. While SaaS-based solutions are attractive to enterprises because they offer a pay-as-you-go alternative to traditional software, they also create a larger target to attack. The vast majority of companies today keep their documents and schedules behind the firewall, so an attacker has to single out a specific company to go after. If Google has its way, it will sell GAPE to many enterprises, and indirectly make it much easier for attackers to bring down businesses by selecting just one target: Google.
At this point, we are nowhere near having a critical mass of companies using a SaaS-based collaboration and content service, and it's not a foregone conclusion that Google will lead the market. Nevertheless, it's worth keeping the risk in mind.